Scenario Planning

SCENARIO PLANNING MODULES

Trend and changes are affecting supply and demand on a global scale. Market dynamics are changing rapidly, and lead times required to respond are shortened to weeks or days.

Scenario Analysis allows Management to easily understand changes and how to respond effectively. 

The more your business experiences supply side volatility, demand uncertainty, or both, the more you need to understand their impact and the ability to respond. For that a scenario analysis is a must.

PERITO‘s Scenario Planning Modules are powerful tools for both Senior and Operational Management to understand the potential impact of a change in business as well as the best way to mitigate/leverage it.

 

PERITO 's Scenario Analysis:

PERITO Scenario Planning Modules are supporting S&OP Governance through real-time decision making at all organizational levels, meaning that you can simulate consequences of changes in the global Supply Chain footprint or the effect of changes in Supply Chain parameters such as lead times or service levels. 

PERITO Scenario Planning supporting S&OP
Governance through real-time decision making
at all organizational levels

SCENARIO PLANNING MODULES

DEMAND SCENARIOS

When building Scenarios for the Demand Plan these are typically based on a wish to simulate outcomes of uncertain but significant demand events such as Tenders, Campaigns, Projects etc. They can also be a result of various levels of stretched sales targets or assortment changes such as phase in/phase out. Or it can originate from general effects of external events ie. new competition, Covid-19 etc. 

Each of these reasons for building scenarios is handled using combinations of PERITO‘s  Demand Planning Modules  including market intelligence and top-down adjustmentsThe market intelligence features allow the user to plan demand events in different ways; Either as a specific one linked to a material or generally, ie. linked to a bill-of-material and the probability  of an event.

The top-down adjustment features allow the user to make higher level adjustments to for instance a product group for the rest of the year and allocating the adjustment down to the lower levels.

INVENTORY SCENARIOS

When building scenarios for the future target inventory level in our Economic Stock Optimization Module, the user is able to add several requirements such as adjustments to the target service levels. 

Another possibility is also to apply changes in for instance supply routes and lead times, changes in supplier delivery uncertainty as well as changes in Economic Order Quantities. 

In addition, the user is able to simulate the optimal safety stock or re-order point under the adjusted assumptions allowing  better transparency.

SUPPLY SCENARIOS

After completing a set of Demand and Inventory Scenarios, these can be combined flexibly into full Supply Scenarios using the PERITO Replenishment MRP Module which is essentially running a full MRP in Perito yielding simulated purchase requisitions and/or planned production orders as well as the future inventory development.

This is of course an unrestricted Supply Plan and in order to complete the picture  this can be combined with the PERITO Capacity Balancing Module and the Levelling and Load Optimization Module where capacity constraints such as Speed, Shifts, Overtime etc. can be changed.

Finally, in case the demand fulfillment needs to be moved in time due to bottlenecks that cannot be solved by adjusting the capacity constraints. These changes can be integrated back into the Demand Plan, allowing the Demand Planners to be informed in a structured manner.

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